Bitcoin (BTC) has long been known for its cycles of booms and busts, with each bull run followed by a prolonged bear market. However, in 2024, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju argues that Bitcoin is unlikely to enter a sustained bear market. Based on historical price data, key support levels, and strong institutional backing, he believes that while short-term corrections are expected, Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains bullish.
With Bitcoin’s growing adoption, increased investment from major institutions, and the impact of newly approved Bitcoin ETFs, the cryptocurrency market has evolved significantly. Unlike previous cycles, where retail speculation played a dominant role, the presence of institutional investors has made Bitcoin more resilient. Let’s explore the key reasons why a Bitcoin bear market is unlikely in 2024.
Key Factors Indicating Bitcoin’s Continued Bull Run
1. Bitcoin’s Historical Cost Basis Levels as Bear Market Indicators
One of the most critical factors in CryptoQuant’s analysis is the concept of cost basis levels—the average price at which different investor groups acquired Bitcoin. Historically, these levels have acted as major support zones, helping determine whether Bitcoin is transitioning into a bear market.
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ETFs & Custody Wallets: $89,000 – Institutional investors holding BTC through ETFs and custody solutions tend to take a long-term approach. As long as Bitcoin stays above this level, institutional confidence remains strong.
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Binance Traders: $59,000 – Retail traders on Binance have a significantly lower cost basis. A break below this level could indicate selling pressure from short-term traders.
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Mining Companies: $57,000 – Past bear markets (May 2022, March 2020, November 2018) were confirmed only when Bitcoin fell below this level. If BTC stays above it, the bull market remains intact.
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Old Whales: $25,000 – Long-term Bitcoin holders, or “whales,” have never seen their cost basis breached. This suggests strong long-term accumulation and market stability.
CryptoQuant’s CEO emphasizes that unless Bitcoin falls well below $57,000, a bear market is unlikely. Instead, Bitcoin’s current trading range suggests price corrections within an ongoing bull cycle, rather than a shift into bearish territory.
2. Institutional Investors Are Strengthening Bitcoin’s Price Support
The role of institutional investors in the crypto market has grown significantly over the past few years, helping reduce Bitcoin’s volatility. Unlike retail traders, who are prone to panic selling, institutions tend to hold their BTC for the long term.
One of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders, MicroStrategy, has amassed over $45.91 billion worth of BTC, with an average cost basis of $65,033. This means that even if Bitcoin’s price dips, MicroStrategy and other institutions are unlikely to sell, providing strong market support.
Additionally, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has led to billions of dollars in new investments from both retail and institutional investors. Firms like BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK Invest have been increasing their exposure to Bitcoin, signaling strong long-term confidence in the asset. Unlike speculative traders, ETF investors tend to hold Bitcoin for extended periods, reducing the likelihood of large-scale sell-offs that trigger bear markets.
3. Corrections Are Normal in Bull Markets—They Don’t Signal a Bear Market
A common misconception among investors is that any significant price dip signals the beginning of a bear market. However, Bitcoin’s past bull runs have included multiple corrections of 30-40%, followed by new all-time highs.
Ki Young Ju suggests that even if Bitcoin experiences a 30% pullback from its peak (e.g., dropping from $110,000 to $77,000), this is still within the range of a healthy bull market. Looking at historical patterns:
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In 2017, Bitcoin had multiple 40% pullbacks before reaching its then-all-time high.
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In 2021, Bitcoin experienced several drops of 30-35%, yet still climbed to $69,000.
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Current on-chain data shows that long-term holders are accumulating rather than selling, further reinforcing Bitcoin’s bullish outlook.
Thus, while short-term price volatility is expected, it does not necessarily indicate a prolonged bear market. Instead, these dips often serve as buying opportunities for long-term investors.
4. Bitcoin ETFs and Market Maturity Are Preventing a Major Crash
One of the most significant differences between Bitcoin’s previous cycles and 2024 is the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs allow traditional investors, such as hedge funds and retirement accounts, to gain exposure to Bitcoin without the need for self-custody.
Since their approval, Bitcoin ETFs have seen billions of dollars in inflows, increasing Bitcoin’s liquidity and price stability. Unlike speculative traders, ETF investors tend to hold BTC for longer periods, reducing market volatility.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s market has matured significantly since the early days. In 2017, Bitcoin’s market was largely driven by retail traders and speculative hype, leading to extreme price swings. Today, the presence of institutional investors, stronger regulations, and improved infrastructure (such as derivatives markets and custodial services) make Bitcoin less susceptible to sharp downturns.
With Bitcoin becoming a more established asset class, it is less likely to experience the same 80% crashes seen in past bear markets. Instead, analysts expect more gradual price movements, with Bitcoin maintaining strong support levels even in the face of corrections.
5. The Bitcoin Halving Event in 2024 Will Likely Drive Prices Higher
Another key reason why Bitcoin is unlikely to enter a bear market in 2024 is the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in April 2024.
Bitcoin halvings occur approximately every four years, reducing the block reward for miners by 50%. This event limits the supply of new BTC entering the market, historically leading to significant bull runs in the months that follow.
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2012 Halving: Bitcoin surged from $12 to $1,000 within a year.
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2016 Halving: Bitcoin climbed from $650 to $20,000 in the following bull run.
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2020 Halving: Bitcoin jumped from $8,000 to $69,000 in the next 18 months.
If history repeats, Bitcoin’s supply shock effect could push prices higher in late 2024 and into 2025. This makes it unlikely that a bear market will begin immediately after the halving, as past data suggests that BTC still has room for growth.
Conclusion
Despite recent volatility, CryptoQuant’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin is unlikely to enter a bear market in 2024. Strong institutional support, key cost basis levels, and historical price patterns all suggest that Bitcoin remains in a bullish cycle.
While short-term corrections may occur, they should not be mistaken for a long-term downtrend. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, the upcoming halving event, and increasing mainstream adoption all point toward continued upside potential for Bitcoin.
FAQs
What is a Bitcoin bear market?
A Bitcoin bear market is a prolonged period of declining prices, typically defined by a drop of 20% or more from its recent peak, combined with reduced trading activity, lower investor confidence, and negative sentiment. In past bear markets, Bitcoin has fallen over 80% from all-time highs, leading to extended periods of stagnation before recovering.
Why does CryptoQuant believe Bitcoin won’t enter a bear market in 2024?
CryptoQuant’s CEO, Ki Young Ju, argues that Bitcoin has strong support levels, increased institutional adoption, and historical price patterns that indicate a continued bull cycle. He suggests that unless Bitcoin falls below $57,000, it is unlikely to transition into a bear market.
What role do Bitcoin ETFs play in price stability?
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) allow institutional and retail investors to invest in BTC without needing to manage private keys or wallets. Since their launch in 2024, ETFs have attracted billions of dollars in inflows, creating a more stable demand for Bitcoin and reducing price volatility. Unlike speculative traders, ETF investors typically hold Bitcoin for the long term, preventing sharp sell-offs.
How does institutional investment impact Bitcoin’s market?
Large institutions such as MicroStrategy, BlackRock, and Fidelity have invested billions in Bitcoin, making them key players in maintaining price stability. MicroStrategy alone holds $45.91 billion worth of BTC, with an average cost basis of $65,033. Since institutional investors rarely engage in panic selling, their long-term holdings provide a strong price floor for Bitcoin.